On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued the "Announcement on Adjusting Export Tax Rebate Policies for Photovoltaic and Other Products." The announcement explicitly stipulates that, effective April 1, 2026, value-added tax (VAT) export tax rebates for photovoltaic and related products will be cancelled

In 2025, the polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market struggled under the dual pressures of low prices and oversupply. According to data monitored by the BuyChemPlastics Research Institute, by the end of 2025, the price of Type 5 PVC in East China was around 4,500 yuan/ton, a 10% decrease from the beginning of the year's price of 5,000 yuan/ton.

In 2025, the PVC market consistently faced the dual pressures of high supply and high operating rates, with futures prices hitting a record low since its listing. Although the National Development and Reform Commission's introduction of cost-based standards for identifying disorderly price competition signaled a clear policy support, and undervaluation factors drove a slight rebound in futures prices, the weak market trend remained unchanged.

In the second half of 2025, the domestic PVC industry officially entered a period of intensive capacity commissioning, with the concentrated implementation of new capacity further exacerbating the pressure on the market supply side. Specifically, approximately 1.7 million tons of PVC capacity are planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year.

Last week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 76.84%, a slight increase of 0.05% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 3.64%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of the calcium carbide method was 76.03%, a decrease of 3.22% week-on-week and a slight decrease of 0.28% year-on-year, while the capacity utilization rate of the ethylene method was 78.99%, a significant increase of 8.71% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 14.68%.

In 2025, the trend of capacity expansion in China's PVC industry continued, with the total national PVC capacity expected to approach 30 million tons by the end of the year. New capacity is mainly distributed in North China, Northwest China, and South China. Among them, the production facilities of Shaanxi Jintai and Xinpu Chemical have been successfully put into operation; Tianjin Bohua's 400,000-ton, Fujian Wanhua's 500,000-ton, and Qingdao Haiwan's 200,000-ton facilities are scheduled to officially start operation in July.

Over the past five years, PVC prices have exhibited a clear volatile pattern, with a relatively wide fluctuation range. In 2020, impacted by the pandemic, the supply and demand structure changed, leading to an initial decline followed by a rise in PVC prices. In 2021, the implementation of energy consumption control policies in China, coupled with concentrated production cuts by overseas companies during the Spring Festival holiday, resulted in a significant increase in my country's PVC exports. Tight domestic supply pushed prices to historical highs.

In July, the domestic PVC market generally trended downwards, with prices continuing to decline. The benchmark price for SG-5 PVC in East China was 5686 yuan/ton, a 3.41% decrease compared to the previous month. The core issue causing the PVC market to fall back into a downward trend this month is the unresolved imbalance between supply and demand, with oversupply continuing to dominate market trends.

In May 2024, the domestic PVC market showed a continuous upward trend, with prices steadily rising. The benchmark price for SG-5 PVC in East China was 5856 yuan/ton, a 4.65% increase compared to the previous month. The core drivers of this price increase were marginal improvement in fundamentals, a recovery in market sentiment driven by favorable macroeconomic policies, and support from low PVC valuations and limited downside potential. Especially after mid-May, PVC prices surged, but downstream enterprises showed low acceptance of high-priced goods, leading to a stalemate in market transactions.